Investing insights
Our global Chief Investment Office (CIO) publishes our economic outlook and investing themes. From thought-leadership on ESG and long-term trends to timely commentary on market developments, our investing insights are designed to help each client shape their financial tomorrow.
CIO Insights quarterly report
CIO PERSPECTIVES: Q2 2024 Update
In the first issue of our new quarterly publication, we update our forecasts for 2024 on the macroeconomic front, as well as for equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange.
Stocks
Annual Outlook 2024 | ESG: We‘re in this together
ESG investment has gone mainstream, with performance implications. Energy transition may point the way to investing in the sustainable economy.
Bonds
Annual Outlook 2024 | Bonds: Real rates matter
After years of extremely low interest rates, the investment universe is now complete again thanks to the renewed attractiveness of bonds as an asset class – and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future in our opinion.
Stocks
Annual Outlook 2024 | Sectors: banking on tech
U.S. growth stocks are probably still the way to go for the long term. European and Japanese financials could appeal too, as well as consumer discretionary, industrials and energy.
Stocks
Annual Outlook 2024 | Risks: de-risking risks
Be aware that measures to create stability may just create new risks. Rates are still on our radar.
CIO Special report
Bottoming out in the German housing market
It remains a challenging environment for the German housing market, but rate cuts, economic growth and structural rental market shortages should help the market to bottom out.
Future Fundamentals podcast
Investing in the Blue Economy: a blueprint for action
In our Future Fundamentals podcast, Karen Sack, of ORRAA, and Markus Müller, our Chief Investment Officer for ESG, take a deep dive into the sustainable blue economy.
CIO Special report
Long-term Capital Market Assumptions: our latest forecasts
These form a vital component some systematic long-term asset allocation approaches. We highlight significant developments since our last review and the reasons for them.
CIO Special report
China’s economy: awaiting the right cues
China recently released a flurry of Q1 economic data. But while GDP numbers were surprisingly strong, some other activity measures continue to disappoint. So has China’s economy really turned a corner?
CIO Special report
Atmosphere: Shield of the earth
The third in our trilogy of keynote presentations on the Earth's "Life Pillars" explains why climate-related risks and opportunities should be important considerations for investors with regard to long-term portfolio development.
CIO Viewpoint
Gold: still time to shine
The gold price has reached successive record highs in recent weeks. Could it rise further in the medium term?
CIO Special report
Smart Mobility: EVs and batteries present opportunities and risks
Favourable long-term trends for the electric-vehicle market remain intact – but an excess supply of battery metals means the outlook for miners remains clouded.
CIO Special report
LTIT: Sustainable Food Systems – favourable entry points ahead?
Sustainable food systems (SFS) deliver food security and nutrition in ways that are sustainable in economic, social and environmental terms. Transitioning towards sustainable food systems could open up business opportunities worth USD4.5 trillion per year by 2030.
CIO Special report
India: Will a billion voters move markets in the world’s biggest democratic election?
India, the world’s largest democracy, is heading to a national vote, with results expected by the end of May. Almost one billion registered voters will make this the biggest election exercise anywhere, ever.
CIO Special report
Why women’s financial inclusion matters
The empowerment of women in the labour force is important in ways that go beyond the critical matter of social justice. Female financial inclusion and gender equality are “macrocritical” to boosting economic activity.
CIO Special report
U.S. Election: ‘Super Tuesday’ moves Biden-Trump closer
In a year that has been claimed to be the busiest in history for political elections, there will be no bigger event in the calendar than the race to be President of the United States, due to be held on November 5th.
CIO Special report
Asset allocation for private clients
Strategic asset allocation for private clients starts with detailed knowledge of an investor’s risk profile, investment horizon, and performance targets, among other considerations.
Market insights
CIO Memo
China equities: closing the tactical trading call
Soft macroeconomic data, depreciation pressures on the Chinese yuan and market volatility signal limited near-term upside for Chinese equities, though we expect a recovery in the second half of the year.
CIO Memo
Early interest rate turnaround in Switzerland
The Swiss National Bank has taken the lead as the first major central bank to cut interest rates amid subsiding inflationary pressures. The move sent a signal that the SNB would protect the economy from the consequences of an excessively strong franc.
CIO Memo
FOMC: Raising the bar
The Federal Reserve's March update to its economic projections implied that three 25-basis-point interest-rate cuts remain in store for 2024.
CIO Memo
Japan: the start of positive interest rates
In a landmark event, the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest-rate policy and yield curve control, though monetary policies remain accommodative.
CIO Memo
U.K. economy: on the way out of recession
The U.K. economy started the new year with moderate growth, and the rebound should give the Bank of England the cover it needs to stick to its wait-and-see approach. That could sustain the British pound's relative strength in the near term.
CIO Memo
Japan: when will the BoJ pivot?
Wage hikes by some leading manufacturers have set the tone for industry-wide pay rises. Japanese authorities are closely watching industry pay revisions as they expect it to trigger a “virtuous cycle of growth”. However, BoJ Governor Ueda recently played down the state of the Japanese economy, given mixed data signals.
CIO Memo
U.S. CPI: Patience is key
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an annualised increase of +3.2% year-on-year (YoY), moving higher from last month’s reading. On a month-on-month basis (MoM) Core CPI, which excludes Food and Energy, remained at +0.4%.
CIO Memo
Nonfarm payrolls: Mixed report strengthens case for June cut
The latest Nonfarm payrolls report delivered higher-than-expected jobs figures for the month of February, with significant downward revisions also seen for the previous two months.
CIO Memo
ECB hints at interest rate reversal in June
The prospect of an imminent turnaround in interest rates should continue to provide the equity markets with a slight tailwind.
CIO Memo
U.S. CPI: Taking a detour
Stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation figures will reinforce the Fed's cautious approach to a potential interest-rate cut in the near future.
CIO Memo
Nonfarm payrolls: Kicking the cut down the road
The U.S. jobs report for January showed the labour market on a stronger footing than forecast. That could mean that the Federal Reserve will hold off on interest-rate cuts for longer than had recently been expected.
CIO Memo
India: Interim budget targets strong fiscal improvement
A budget focused on strong fiscal consolidation unsurprisingly gave support to fixed income markets.
CIO Special report
Venture Capital Investing: returns and diversification
Our latest CIO Special report Venture Capital investing: returns and diversification discusses how the sector is developing and its role in portfolios. Read more...
CIO Special report
Venture Capital investing: conclusion
We attempt to summarise the main positives and negatives of Venture Capital investing in our CIO Special report.
CIO Special report
Venture Capital trends
Find out more about the growth of global Venture Capital investment and the wide range of risks associated in our CIO Special report.
CIO Special report
Portfolios and Venture Capital
Find out more about the potential role of Venture Capital investing in portfolios as well as diversification in our CIO Special report.
CIO Special report
Venture Capital in entrepreneurship
Find out more about the role of Venture Capitalists in our CIO Special report.